San Francisco Bike Blog

In the unfolding disaster that is BRT in India, there’s one aspect of the BRT fraud that is as entertaining as it is tragic - population density, or the capacity you need your transportation systems to carry.

One of the primary arguments for rail is density. Density is not exactly the same thing as ‘transit capacity required,’ but it seems to be a pretty good estimate. If you have a lot of density, then you should probably take a serious look at rail. If you have density that is off the charts, then you have to use rail - and possibly even heavy rail — that is, expensive rail. If you need to carry a lot of people, you need to have a solution that can carry a lot of people. Think New York City subway. London Underground. That kind of thing.

I was walking with a friend of mine from India - he was from Chennai. We were in downtown Sydney during one of the opening parades for the Olympics. The Aussie cricket team were in the streets so my boy was totally psyched to shake hands with Shane Warne - apparently, all of Sydney was psyched to shake his hand too.

In any case, the streets were extremely crowded. I’d seen big crowds before, but this was a serious crowd. There were just big open areas that were packed to the gills - like sardines - shoulder-to-shoulder - whatever metaphor you want to use. I said something to that effect to my buddy - something like, “Holy @#$@#$ @#$@#@#$ it’s @#$@#$#@ crazy crowded up in this @#$#@@#$@#$@#$@ like what the @#$@# holy @#$#@$!”

To which he replied, “Dude - come to India.”

And then he just laughed his ass off at my naivete.

Bogota has a population density of about 10k/sq mi.

San Francisco is the second most densely populated city in the U.S., at about 16k/sq mi.

New York City blows us away, at about 27k/sq mi.

Delhi, where the first Indian BRT test system is still flailing away, sits at about 29k /sq mi - this is about three times Bogota’s density.

And what does the Delhi Prime Minister want to do with all these people? Put them on buses. For reals.

And she wants to do it by providing only a single lane for the buses, so when one bus stops to pick people up, every other bus has to stop behind it and wait. The Bogota BRT system has two dedicated bus lanes running in each direction, and it still backs up. This is because buses were not designed to carry lots of people. Bogota and Curitiba and other places continue to try to turn buses into trains, by any number of schemes - like bi-articulation - but it hasn’t worked yet. And it probably never will.

BRT has always been a failure - it’s only a question of just how much of a failure. Had Bogota and Curitiba invested in proper infrastructure, they wouldn’t have had increasing car ownership and driving even along the BRT corridors. They could have real mass transit systems today, instead of smog-inducing bus systems that keep all but the poorest people in their cars. If you don’t have the money to build a 20-mile long light rail system, then you start with a 2-mile long light rail system. It’s not rocket science.

Still need more money? Start taking that ‘decongestion charge’ thing seriously. Give people real and safe and pleasant bicycle and walking infrastructure so they have an option. If they choose to drive instead, then charge them for the privilege. It’s simple and fair.

Now, I can’t speak for the contraints that ‘global financial institutions’ put on countries like Colombia and Brazil. The World Bank, for instance, has a long history, and it’s decidedly mixed — some good, some evil. Did they force certain countries to adopt pro-car transportation so those countries would be offered loans to keep their governments afloat? I have no idea. If that’s the case that BRT proponents want to make, then I’m all ears. All I’ve heard so far is how awesome BRT is for countries that are resource-strapped. Yet, as far as I can tell, the numbers simply don’t pan out. My argument is simple - plan for the long term. If you do that, you’ll be much better off than when you build these one-off systems that are good for the politicians who are trying to have some achievement to put on their resumes for when they run for higher office. I’ve yet to hear of an official who has supported BRT and gone on to win higher office, but maybe such a person exists. Bueller? Bueller?

[Image: Flickr / Peter Garnhum]

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